The Rise of the Moderate Republicans [ by Michael T] [News You Can Abuse]
January 24, 2010After a Fall where sleazebag Joe Lieberman and supposed Dems Blanche Lincoln and Ben Nelson held progress hostage, the winds of change have swept through DC and rendered those folks impotent.
First of all, Lincoln is toast this Fall as is Harry Reid. So there is going to be a huge re-alignment in the Senate in Jan 2011 and we might as well start looking at the reality of a 55 - 45 seat majority if we want to get anything done next year. (Congress is notoriously skittish to doing big things in election years so let’s figure for sake of argument nothing major goes through).
Well, I hate to tell Republicans but their conservative majority is never coming back. There just isn’t a political reality that gets them to 51 conservatives. First of all there is Olympia Snowe, and to a lesser degree Susan Collins. Then you have Delaware, which looks to go to Rep. Mike Castle since Beau Biden doesn’t want to run and even his father can’t get him to take the plunge. But history has proven Castle to be a moderate and he can be worked with. Add in Brown, who despite his appeal to tea partiers, is not a right winger but a Snowe-wannabe, as is Kelly Ayotte in NH. Brown will have 2 1/2 years to convince MA voters to support him come 2012 - when Obama will be on the ticket so that’s a tall order. So he can go tea party or he can try to pull a Snowe. Watch for the latter and Dems will have little choice to court him, if they want to pass anything. If Charlie Crist wins the nomination in FL - a big if - you get to 5 moderate Republicans. I know, I know, certain readers will say they’re right wingers, but since the entire political spectrum has swung to the right.
So while the Repubs may rip themselves apart over a few tea party candidates, the end result is some moderates will be out there. So if Obama wants to play bi-partisan, he’ll have some more cover besides the two ME Senators. Whether he can pass anything of real substance will remain to be seen.
UPDATE - there seems to be some dispute about the Biden report, which may refer to Ted Kaufman who currently holds the seat. Regardless, this is a tough slog for Dems even if Biden does run, which he does not seem inclined to want to do.
MONDAY UPDATE - Biden is officially not running.
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