Dem Disaster? Not So Fast [ by Michael T] [News You Can Abuse]
March 01, 2010Okay, today we play postive prognostication at Outrage. Remember all those saying this year could spell doom for the Dem majorities? Well not so fast.
Democrats have a lousy hand this coming November - high unemployment and a slowly improving economy coupled with motivated, quasi-insane tea baggers, equals guaranteed losses. However, it seems the Dems may be slowly turning the ship. Some recent examples -
Evan Bayh is jumping ship but there is a solid candidate in Rep. Brad Ellsworth who is polling about even with the two perspective Republican candidates. Ellsworth already beat one of them to get his House seat and he’s a tough, no nonsense guy who should do well statewide. Not a complete write-off, unlike the Dorgan seat, which is a goner.
Lt. Gov Bill Halter of Arkansas finally got pushed into the race against certain loser Blanche Lincoln. Now the liberal money will flow to him and she’ll be toast. Halter is popular and can stand up to either Republican running for the nomination.
In open Senate races, Ohio and Missouri are still toss-ups and Repubs can’t get more traction than they have now. If things continue to improve this year, Dems can pick up both seats. And New Hampshire is not out of reach either.
Alexi Giannoulias is running ahead of Mark Kirk in Illinois and that open House seat has a very good shot of flipping Democratic. Add the Delaware at large seat and Cao’s seat in New Orleans and you have three great pickups looming. That means Repubs have to beat 43 Dems and that’s not likely to happen. Especially when a conserva-Dem who should theoretically be in trouble is up by 20+% in Alabama.
Meanwhile, tea bag news means bad things for Reps - a generic tea party candidate polls at 18% in NV, essentially meaning Harry Reid can be re-elected. Marco Rubio is about to knock off Charlie Crist in FL who should be hearing the ring of “change party” in his ears. Even guys like John McCain are not immune - he’s being challenged hard by J.D. Hayworth who’s trying his best not to seem insane (apparently backing off birtherism for some reason). Imagine Hayworth against a Democrat and suddenly we have a chance for an odd pickup.
And in super news for Dems in New York, Gov. Paterson has scandaled his way out of office and Andrew Cuomo will be the the next governor. No more drag on the ticket, ensuring that some Congressional Dems will get a boost - think vulnerable reps like Mike McMahon, Tim Bishop, Tim Owens, not to mention Kirsten Gillibrand who is one election victory away from being in the Senate as long as she wants to be. Just as importantly, Govs. Deval Patrick of MA and Ted Strickland of Ohio have both moved into the lead in polls of their respective states.
We’re not out of the woods yet and our majorities will be much slimmer come 2010. But in 2012, we will have Obama on the ballot and that means more Dems in Congress. Not to mention, the end of the Mr. Brown’s curious tenure in D.C.
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