Democrats have a lousy hand this coming November - high unemployment and a slowly improving economy coupled with motivated, quasi-insane tea baggers, equals guaranteed losses. However, it seems the Dems may be slowly turning the ship. Some recent examples -

Evan Bayh is jumping ship but there is a solid candidate in Rep. Brad Ellsworth who is polling about even with the two perspective Republican candidates. Ellsworth already beat one of them to get his House seat and he’s a tough, no nonsense guy who should do well statewide. Not a complete write-off, unlike the Dorgan seat, which is a goner.

Lt. Gov Bill Halter of Arkansas finally got pushed into the race against certain loser Blanche Lincoln. Now the liberal money will flow to him and she’ll be toast. Halter is popular and can stand up to either Republican running for the nomination.

In open Senate races, Ohio and Missouri are still toss-ups and Repubs can’t get more traction than they have now. If things continue to improve this year, Dems can pick up both seats. And New Hampshire is not out of reach either.

Alexi Giannoulias is running ahead of Mark Kirk in Illinois and that open House seat has a very good shot of flipping Democratic. Add the Delaware at large seat and Cao’s seat in New Orleans and you have three great pickups looming. That means Repubs have to beat 43 Dems and that’s not likely to happen. Especially when a conserva-Dem who should theoretically be in trouble is up by 20+% in Alabama.

Meanwhile, tea bag news means bad things for Reps - a generic tea party candidate polls at 18% in NV, essentially meaning Harry Reid can be re-elected. Marco Rubio is about to knock off Charlie Crist in FL who should be hearing the ring of “change party” in his ears. Even guys like John McCain are not immune - he’s being challenged hard by J.D. Hayworth who’s trying his best not to seem insane (apparently backing off birtherism for some reason). Imagine Hayworth against a Democrat and suddenly we have a chance for an odd pickup.

And in super news for Dems in New York, Gov. Paterson has scandaled his way out of office and Andrew Cuomo will be the the next governor. No more drag on the ticket, ensuring that some Congressional Dems will get a boost - think vulnerable reps like Mike McMahon, Tim Bishop, Tim Owens, not to mention Kirsten Gillibrand who is one election victory away from being in the Senate as long as she wants to be. Just as importantly, Govs. Deval Patrick of MA and Ted Strickland of Ohio have both moved into the lead in polls of their respective states.

We’re not out of the woods yet and our majorities will be much slimmer come 2010. But in 2012, we will have Obama on the ballot and that means more Dems in Congress. Not to mention, the end of the Mr. Brown’s curious tenure in D.C.

The New York Times devotes pages to this clown today - a 3 page (online, at least) op-ed written by the coward Senator. And it’s rich with inanity, besides-the-point reminisces of the past and silly solutions. Our favorite - how about a monthly lunch of all Senators? Really? That’s the solution, people who hate each other having lunch. He ends by talking about how he will work for 11 months to make the situation better. Why would anyone listen to him? They can just put him in the corner and let him yammer - he’ll be gone. And replaced, most likely, with an obstructionist, do-nothing Republican. That will really help the situation.

Here are the solutions Senator - not that you care since you are abandoning DC for god knows what - end the filibuster, teach Republicans some respect, and oh yeah, END THE FILIBUSTER. Bayh does actually suggest making it 55, which makes some sense. But when you have a bunch of conserva-Dems like Nelson and Lincoln, even 55 might be too high for some legislation. Let’s not forget, if Specter survives his re-election bid, he’ll probably tack back right to his original positions - there’ll be no need to appease the Dem primary voters after all.

Evan Bayh has created a mess in the Senate and shares responsibility with Republicans and conserva-Dems for obstructing the will of the American people. Perhaps he should look in the mirror before pointing fingers at others.

We in the continental U.S. are about fed up with winter yet the location of the Winter Olympics is already experiencing spring - if the cherry blossoms are to be believed. Vancouver itself is a wonderful city but it is completely ill suited to hosting a winter games. The average temp in February is 44 degrees and rainfall is around 4.55 inches. That should have worried the IOC, or maybe not. Granted, many of the events are in the mountains far from the city, but the result has been a messy, dangerous Olympics. Today alone, several top women wiped out on an icy downhill course. That’s just not acceptable.

Of course, just days ago, the games opened on a real down note - the luge course killed an athlete from the country of Georgia. As a result, the course was shortened and no one else died. Thank god. But since then there have been technical glitches on the speed skating course, biathletes were sent early in two races on Tuesday and the opening ceremony - a snooze if there was ever one - featured a tier of the torch that did not rise. Add in the fact that the outdoor torch has been inaccessible behind tall chainlink fences and you have a bungled games. After all, are the Canadians afraid someone will blow up the torch? Why else would it be placed behind a fence?

We hope these games get their shit together and soon. The competition is often fierce and the sports more demanding all the time. The athletes deserve more than a poorly conceived, sometimes dangerous series of courses. And the IOC, a corrupt, illegitimate bearer of the Olympic legacy, should learn from these games that the safety of athletes should come first. They could start by actually choosing a winter venue for the Olympics.

Ezra Klein writing in yesterday’s Washington Post agreed - he says it’s time to use recess appointments and reconciliation to get things done. Because Republicans will only obstruct, no matter how many meetings Obama holds or how nice he plays. These guys don’t play nice. They also don’t respect the Presidency - after all Bush took a great big dump on it while he was in town. So let’s stop the charade and get things passed. Now. Then you’ll have the Dem base fired up for November. The alternative is, well, a ton of half-wits like Scotty Brown getting elected. And that is no alternative at all from our perspective.

The New York Times reported yesterday that about $36 billion worth of care last year was not reimbursed to hospitals. Under the law, hospitals cannot turn away patients with emergencies so they are left footing the bill. The result is higher costs passed on to patients and insurance companies - which get passed on to people like you and me.

This is madness and will result in cutbacks in care and hospital closures. Already hospitals are shedding staff - adding to unemployment figures. The effects of this on communities can be devastating. Of course, where was this mentioned in the health care debate? Nowhere, naturally. Why would Democrats promote things like hospitals and medical services? What a disgrace.

Maybe Republicans can do this math - more and more people are uninsured every day, something the recession has exacerbated. If you have no plan to change that - and Republicans have never drawn up a plan to do so - then more uninsured means more people using emergency rooms. And more people who either go bankrupt or too poor to pay their bills. And premiums and patient care costs go up and up. This is simple stuff and can be boiled down to one easy phrase, “Save our Hospitals.” Or better yet, “Hey Republicans, why do you hate our hospitals?”

The Democratic plan was pretty poorly conceived but it was a plan and it would have been a marked improvement (especially a public option or medicare buy-in). And it was something that Republicans shamefully, no gleefully, buried. At least the next time you see a hospital close, you know who to blame.

Granted, the game itself was compelling and well played. The Saints fought hard and played smart - thanks in large part to a daring coach. But the rest of the telecast was a joke - starting with pregame nonsense, military worship during the anthem and inane color commentary. Don’t even get me started on the idiotic, unwatchable commercials.

But here is where reality and showbiz diverge - instead of solving our problems, say the death of tens of thousands and the flooding of a city in real life, we root for a football team. Why? Because the team is based in the city of New Orleans. And as much as I love New Orleans, the fact that everything is now supposedly made better is a load of horseshit. The place is still in the dumps, dangerous in many places, hopelessly backwards in some cases, and very much in danger of being destroyed. No matter, a bunch of guys won a football game. God forbid Americans should deal with reality - instead it’s the same old delusional patriotism and disconnect from the real world.

Somehow, Super Bowl Sunday is now a national holiday. Yesterday’s game was also the highest rated television event ever - breaking a 27 year old record held by the final episode of MASH. But why is it such lousy TV? Start with the pre-game, which featured Guy Fieri serving crap on a ritz cracker. Literally an inedible sludge topped with shrimp - perfect for obese America. Then we suffered through the endless graphics and multiple camera angles during the plays - so much technology it was mind-numbing. Then, most importantly of all was the commentary. It was mostly inoffensive except for one moment when a commentator told the Saints not to blitz. What did they do? Blitz and cause the game ending interception. So much for informed commentary. Next time, I’ll watch on mute.

And if I see one more set of elderly “rockers” on TV, I am literally going to smash my head through the TV.

Then there is the violence - the game itself is under heat for former players with brain damage. This sport is brutal and destroys players’ bodies. Yet, this is treated as a necessary evil so that we may be entertained. It also extends to the embarrassingly stupid commercials - once a highlight. Now we have Betty White getting slammed to the ground, Bud Light trucks driving over human bridges and violin playing beavers. People are upset at the use of the word retarded? Well it has another meaning - to set back. And these commercials retarded the American population by at least a generation. If they weren’t stupid, they were offensive or just plain pointless.

Lastly, if I see one more “journalist” write “who dat - the Saints!” I will personally pummel them. Let’s not promote thuggish behavior or abuses of the English language folks. Especially if you use that same language to earn a living.

Yup, an embarrassment but not of riches. Stupidity and violence reigned supreme. Considering a country that voted for George Bush AFTER he blundered into two wars, that’s no surprise.

Was a good game though. Go Saints!

I’ve always been amazed at the number of gays in the military since they have to live in secret and cannot have open personal lives. Yet, year after year, gay soldiers, seamen and airmen continue to do their jobs, often in harms way. Sometimes, it is a thankless, yet critical job - remember all those Arabic translators who were kicked out to the detriment of our efforts in Iraq? That was plain stupid.

Finally Obama has pushed the Defense Department to act and it’s about time. Fewer people will be dismissed and enforcement of the law will be a lot less strict under new DOD policies. Of course these are Obamian half measures in place of real change - the usual B.S. we get from the administration.

Of course, the world has changed a lot since 1993 when Bill Clinton imposed this horrible policy on the military. It will take time to undo, not least of all because a law to repeal must be passed, no easy feat these days. But the wheels of change have started to turn. Sec Def Bill Gates is on board and that is the kind of support we need. For a former Bush appointee, Gates has shown good leadership under Obama (who it must be said I am very disappointed with in terms of military budgeting) but the Left will need to keep pushing to get the change through.

Here’s to finally killing off this policy in 2010.

While the Obama Administration has done an unexpectedly credible job of repairing some of the damage (contrary to public perception), the pace of developments has not slowed. Let’s hope this month is an exceptional example, but I fear it will not be.

Which is the story of the month? Is it the Republicans regaining their 41-59 “majority” in the US Senate, enabling them to block any meaningful initiative or reform under the current Kafkaësque rules of the chamber (you probably know someone who will die prematurely for lack of healthcare reform; I do)? Or is it Great Britain raising the current threat level to “severe”? The succession of suicide attacks in Iraq? The demonstrated nonviability of the Internet as a secure commercial or communications vehicle by the (presumably Chinese government) hack attacks on our nation’s most savvy Internet companies (blame Microsoft)? The proposed “purity test” for Republican candidates that spells the final death knell for functional moderation in our political system? NBC (and by extension, broadcast TV) throwing away its future by kissing off Conan O’Brien (and paying $44 million just in severance for the privilege)? An all-white basketball league (even if it is a hoax)?

My vote goes to what amounts to nothing short of a fundamental rewrite of our Constitution, issued by our right-wing Supreme Court, in an act of unprecedented judicial activism (even more so than Bush v Gore), that provides unbridled First Amendment protections for corporations, an artificial construct of the state that was never mentioned or even conceived by our nation’s founders, and whose sole purpose is to make money. Hereafter, lobbyists will be able to look any political officeholder in the eye and credibly claim that they will spend any amount of money necessary to defeat him or her. As one cartoonist put it, the Supreme Court has now ruled that corporations can now own as many politicians as they can afford. What representative democracy can possibly survive that? Hint: none. Think about it: who would even want to be a political officeholder in such an environment? Answer: amoral sock puppets and retarded celebrity hounds.

The Bay State’s new Senator, Scott Brown, fits neatly into both categories. How much of a misogynist do you have to be to announce in your very first appearance on national television that your daughters, who are standing right behind you on camera, are “available”? I’m half surprised he didn’t set a price. Evidently, he intends to negotiate the dowry. How shrewd. And this after he trotted them out to defend his indefensible record proposing “conscience” exemptions for dispensing emergency contraception to rape victims. That’s right. Rape victims. But I digress.

Clearly, the motive for the ruling in Citizens United v Federal Election Commission is to create an insuperable advantage for the forces of reaction and darkness. Even John McCain is appalled. The list of concerns is too long to enumerate here. I’ll start with a few that should raise alarms across the political spectrum. Most corporations, and all large corporations, are owned at least in part by people who are not US citizens, and most large corporations have operations abroad. Should these foreigners be able to influence our political system in this way, even indirectly through their equity? Justice Samuel Alito shook his head and mouthed, “Not true,” when Obama raised this very point in his State of the Union address, but Alito himself affirmed this problem in oral argument before the court. He doesn’t think it’s a problem, clearly, but that’s different from “not true.” Or how about the legions of corporations whose management views are in obvious and direct opposition to the opinions and interests of their employees, to say nothing of the communities in which they operate (think Enron, which helped propel Bush to the presidency and before that to the governorship of Texas)?

Here’s a tip for the right-wingers: money is not speech, and corporations are not people, and I’m sure I’m not the first to say this. The reason I ended my membership with the ACLU decades ago is because up to now they have been wrong on this critical point, defending the First Amendment for any and all entities. Belatedly, they are now seeing the evil of this view and may change their policy. That small and likely pyrrhic gesture will be a welcome development, perhaps the only one since the new year.

First of all, Lincoln is toast this Fall as is Harry Reid. So there is going to be a huge re-alignment in the Senate in Jan 2011 and we might as well start looking at the reality of a 55 - 45 seat majority if we want to get anything done next year. (Congress is notoriously skittish to doing big things in election years so let’s figure for sake of argument nothing major goes through).

Well, I hate to tell Republicans but their conservative majority is never coming back. There just isn’t a political reality that gets them to 51 conservatives. First of all there is Olympia Snowe, and to a lesser degree Susan Collins. Then you have Delaware, which looks to go to Rep. Mike Castle since Beau Biden doesn’t want to run and even his father can’t get him to take the plunge. But history has proven Castle to be a moderate and he can be worked with. Add in Brown, who despite his appeal to tea partiers, is not a right winger but a Snowe-wannabe, as is Kelly Ayotte in NH. Brown will have 2 1/2 years to convince MA voters to support him come 2012 - when Obama will be on the ticket so that’s a tall order. So he can go tea party or he can try to pull a Snowe. Watch for the latter and Dems will have little choice to court him, if they want to pass anything. If Charlie Crist wins the nomination in FL - a big if - you get to 5 moderate Republicans. I know, I know, certain readers will say they’re right wingers, but since the entire political spectrum has swung to the right.

So while the Repubs may rip themselves apart over a few tea party candidates, the end result is some moderates will be out there. So if Obama wants to play bi-partisan, he’ll have some more cover besides the two ME Senators. Whether he can pass anything of real substance will remain to be seen.

UPDATE - there seems to be some dispute about the Biden report, which may refer to Ted Kaufman who currently holds the seat. Regardless, this is a tough slog for Dems even if Biden does run, which he does not seem inclined to want to do.

MONDAY UPDATE - Biden is officially not running.

Candidates win elections - good ones, that is. The Democrats have unfortunately had the crap triumvirate this year - rich, out of touch Corzine, hapless Deeds trying to occupy left, middle and right at the same time and Martha Coakley, the lamest of all. Coakley was the only candidate known statewide even two months ago yet there seems to be no love for her. Liberals are suspicious because of her law & order background while Republicans don’t vote for Democratic women no matter how tough they act. Independents swing back and forth between the parties and this time they have swung angrily to the right. Of course they won’t be happy with Scot Brown aka the latest emperor with no clothes candidate. Angry people act stupid and we are about to see the height of stupidity.

In the meantime, media pundits will say that the Dems are doomed come November. They may be, for various historical reasons not to mention a blundering, ineffective, poorly sold “agenda,” but they are not doomed because Republicans are resurgent or even popular. Angry people may act stupidly but they are not stupid. They know Republicans can’t run the government for more than five minutes without piling on the debt and blowing up fourth world countries. So they will protest and vote for people that are no more likely to turn things around then Democrats. (Actually these people are so retarded in their thinking presently that they feel stopping any action at all will be positive. That is not rational thinking by any stretch.)

So what are we left with? It’s the candidate stupid and this year Dems have tons of bad ones. Some we’ve seen, others are yet to rear their heads. OK, Harry Reid and Blanche Lincoln have. But that’s the true narrative folks - bad candidates lose, especially when the political winds have shifted. And one year into Obama’s destined to be disappointing tenure, the gale is fully in our faces.

All we can say is Chuck Schumer better blow up the filibuster next year. Because Harry Reid ain’t gonna be around and the Dem majority will likely be only a few seats.

Almost five years ago, McGwire refused to answer questions before Congress about steroid use. Today he changed his tune, calling it “foolish” and a “mistake.”

Sorry Mark, you are a disgrace. You helped destroy a sport you purported to love. What you did was not a mistake nor was it foolish. It was malicious and criminal. It was systematic and devious.

Oh and this devious lying crook’s new job? Hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals. One of baseball’s great teams has sullied its image beyond repair in my book. I’ll enjoy rooting against them for the rest of my life.

But she makes another point about which she is entirely correct: everything of significance that we are about to get from the pending healthcare legislation could have been achieved last winter: individual mandates, ending discrimination against pre-existing conditions, and the lame cost controls now under consideration. Everything else that has gone on in Congress has been wasted breath, whose effect has been the erosion of essentially all of the Democrats’ popularity advantage. All the tea-bag froth, all the Congressional grandstanding, all the innuendo and lies (death panels?), all of this was unnecessary and avoidable if the Obama Administration had not bitten off more than it was prepared to chew.

Meanwhile the focus of the American electorate has shifted elsewhere, mainly toward terrorist paranoia and joblessness. The former misses the mark, but the latter does not.

Now that the healthcare reform law is, one way or another, almost behind us, we are only now getting around to financial reform. Demonizing Wall Street would be a good way for the Democrats to get some of their mojo back, but we could have been doing this eight months ago. Why do I think that all that lost time will come back to haunt us big time?

You may recall that EPA scientists recommended stringent limits on smog back in the Bush Dark Ages and industry rebelled. Bush stepped in and arbitrarily set the limits much higher. (Maybe God told him what they should be?) Regardless, and countless asthma cases later, the EPA finally got it right and will impose the limits those scientists originally recommended.

Cue crying from the right wing, anti-regulation forces and big electric. It’s gonna be a long 8 years for those folks.

Let’s face it - Dodd was a dead duck this year and now the Democrats have a very good shot at holding the seat. That means our biggest dangers are now Harry Reid, who is one tough SOB to beat, Michael Bennet and Blanche Lincoln. Bill Ritter’s retirement means that it is likely Andrew Romanoff will jump into the Governor’s race and clear the field of serious competition for Bennet. This is all good news too, especially since with Dorgan retiring, North Dakota is all but assuredly going Republican now.

But Dodd is the tipping point - because it means we can still have 60 seats even if we lose a few such as those above or Delaware (what the hell is going on down there, by the way?). That’s because Republicans are still very unpopular and may lose in Missouri, Ohio and/or New Hampshire. Throw in Florida, where we get a 50/50 shot should Rubio beat Crist and North Carolina where Richard Burr’s numbers stink and you have a heck of a cliffhanger come November. But at worst, we have about 56 Senators. Time to kill the filibuster?

Meanwhile, best we’ll do in the House is lose 12 - 15 seats. My guess is still at about 20, not at all mitigated by near-certain pick-ups in Delaware and Louisiana.

Over 84,000 chemicals are in use in the U.S. and these substances have to be registered with the federal government. However, for 33 years, companies have been registering new chemicals under the Toxic Substances Control Act, which allows them to “exempt from public disclosure any information that could harm their bottom line” according to an article in today’s Washington Post. In essence, this means a company can - and nearly always does - cite this clause in requesting secrecy. Up to 95% of recent requests have cited some need for secrecy resulting in basically a bogus rubber stamp for companies to do whatever they wish. The result is chemicals on the market that may be dangerous and secret mixtures that can cause great harm if ingested or touched - but no one knows how to treat since the company does not need to tell what the ingredients are.

Clearly this is unacceptable and the law needs to be changed. The Post indicates that the Obama administration is not happy with the law and the EPA recently removed 580 chemicals from protection because companies published info on them or posted them on websites. However, that is a drop in the bucket. It’s time the government step up and protect its citizens by repealing the portion of the law allowing for secrecy.

Clearly everyone deserves a vacation - but when you’re the President of the USA and a terrorist strikes, you don’t downplay it or ignore it. You certainly don’t stay on vacation. What you do do is face it head on, take the media by storm, form a bi-partisan commission, etc. Because that is what Americans expect and what your political enemies will be looking for. You don’t, I repeat, don’t leave it to subordinates or fail to manage the message. That is a huge problem, especially when your DHS chief suddenly gets “foot in mouth” disease.

Now, of course, the right wing predictably overreacted to the attempted bombing and now the TSA et al is overreacting by blacklisting 14 countries (while ignoring other terrorist homelands such as Egypt). But my biggest problem with Obama’s White House has reared its head again - not managing the message properly. This is a continual headscratcher considering how adept the campaign was at managing information and stories.

But the White House is a different animal, one that Rahm Emmanuel was supposed to be intimately aware of. But Emmanuel and the rest of the President’s team are letting Obama down. They are not telling him how to cut-off political attacks and how to manage the perception. It’s almost like they don’t understand the tenuous position they - and Democrats - are in this year. If we lose the House, it will be because of the ineptitude of the Obama White House. (Okay, a crap health care bill will also be to blame.)

It’s a shame because Dems have made huge strides with the public with security issues. Dems pushed for all cargo coming into the US to be screened, Dems pushed for the TSA and Dems are the ones who insisted that every suitcase be screened for explosives before being loaded on a plane. Unfortunately, and it’s not really fair since this was also Dutch security screw-up, Dems are taking the brunt of the criticism now.

Let’s hope Obama learns that the next time he is on vacation, when the shit hits the fan, you head back to DC to take charge.